The first round of Group D at the 2026 World Cup brings a clash that on paper looks relatively one-sided. On June 15 at 04:00 at night Polish time, Sweden will face Tunisia in Monterrey. The Scandinavians are aiming for full points and a good start to the tournament, while the Africans are dreaming of a surprise. Check out our picks, odds and analysis for this matchup.

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Sweden – Tunisia: betting tips

This match promises to be rather one-sided, although Tunisia can effectively disrupt the plans of the favorites. We have selected three proposals that, in our opinion, best reflect the nature of this match – from the winner, through the goal market, to the special type for cards.

1. Who will win the match? (Type 1X2)

He is the favorite Sweden. The Scandinavians have a clear qualitative advantage – Viktor Gyökeres is in top form, solid organization of the game under Graham Potter and statistics from previous World Cups speak for them. Tunisia passed the qualifying round without conceding a goal, but sparring with European rivals exposed its limitations – 0:5 against Belgium was a clear warning. The history of head-to-head matches also points to the Swedes, who have won two of the three matches so far.

🎯 Our pick: Sweden will win
Course: 1.92 👉 Play ETOTO

2. Goal tips

We bet on both will shoot. The Swedish defense has not kept a clean sheet in eleven games in a row, which gives Tunisia a real chance to score – especially if Mastouri manages to surprise the opponent with the first goal. Sweden, on the other hand, should score because they have two Premier League strikers in their squad. The historical record of matches between these teams is sparse in terms of goals, but Sweden’s personnel situation and defensive weaknesses suggest that both teams can get on the scoresheet this time.

🎯 Our pick: Both teams will score (BTTS – YES)
Course: 1.93 👉 Play ETOTO

3. Special type

We predict a large number of cards. Tunisia has been famous for years for its brave, defensive play – in matches it loses, it rarely gives up without a fight. When you add the pressure of a World Cup debut and the competition with Sweden’s fast attack, the number of fouls and cards naturally increases. The market for over 3.5 cards seems well priced, taking into account the playing style of both teams and the stakes of the match.

🎯 Our pick: Over 3.5 cards
Course: 1.73 👉 Play ETOTO

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Sweden – Tunisia: betting odds

The odds for Sweden to win are 1.92, for a draw 3.40 and for Tunisia to win 4.10. The numbers leave no doubt – the Scandinavians are the clear favorites in this clash. See the main odds for the Sweden-Tunisia match in ETOTO’s offer:

• Sweden wins – odds 1.92
• Draw – price 3.40
• Tunisia win – odds 4.10
• Over 2.5 goals in the match – odds 2.09
• Both teams will score a goal (BTTS – YES) – odds 1.93

The courses translate into concrete probability. Based on the posted odds, the probability of Sweden winning is approximately 52%, the probability of a draw is approximately 29%, and Tunisia’s triumph is estimated at approximately 24%. The values ​​after adding up exceed 100% due to the bookmaker’s margin.

Sweden vs Tunisia – analysis and form

Sweden enters the tournament with mixed formbut with arguments that count more than the results of sparring. Graham Potter has been organizing the team tactically over the last few months – the play-off qualifiers, although demanding, were successful thanks to two confident victories. Gyökeres and Isak are a striker duo that few rivals can underestimate. The defense remains a weakness – eleven matches without a clean sheet is a warning signal, and Gabriel Gudmundsson is questionable due to a virus infection. Nevertheless, Sweden’s World Cup history is impressive.

Tunisia is a team difficult to break downwhich is confirmed by the impressive qualifying result – 28 points out of 30 and no goals conceded in the qualifying phase. The problem is that the level of African rivals has nothing to do with European powers. The 0-5 loss to Belgium in the sparring exposed the gap between the results at home and the confrontation with the world leaders. The advantage is determination – in six of the last seven World Cup matches, Tunisia conceded no more than one goal. The key to the surprise may be Mastouri, who knows the taste of the first goal in the match.

Sweden – Tunisia: statistics and match balance

The last match ended with a 1-0 win for Tunisia in 2003. The history of head-to-head matches favors Sweden. In the last three matches:

• 12/02/2003: Tunisia – Sweden 1-0
• 10/02/1999: Tunisia – Sweden 0:1
• 22/04/1992: Tunisia – Sweden 0:1

In all four matches so far, only five goals have been scored, and Sweden has won two of them. These results confirm the tactical nature of the competition between these teams – rarely is it decided by more than one goal.

Predicted lineups for the Sweden-Tunisia match

On the Swedish side, Emil Holm is a certain absentee, and Gabriel Gudmundsson’s participation is questionable due to a virus infection. Potter should field a defensive three, supported by active swingmen, and Gyokeres and Isak will form an attacking duo. Tunisia have not reported any absences and should come out with their full squad in a 4-2-3-1 formation.

Predicted lineups for the Sweden-Tunisia match:

• Sweden (3-4-1-2): Nordfeldt – Hien, Lindelöf, Lagerbielke – Bernhardsson, Karlström, Ayari, Gudmundsson – Nygren – Gyokeres, Isak
• Tunisia (4-2-3-1): Chamakh – Valery, Rekik, Talbi, Ali Abdi – Skhiri, Khedira – Achouri, Hannibal, Gharbi – Chaouat

Where to watch Sweden – Tunisia? Live broadcast

The 2026 World Cup Group D match between Sweden and Tunisia is scheduled for Sunday, June 15 at 04:00 Polish time. The match will be played at the Estadio BBVA in Monterrey.

The event will be broadcast live on TV on TVP 1 or TVP Sport. The free online stream will be available on the website sport.tvp.pl and in the TVP Sport mobile application.