As part of the championship phase of the Cypriot 1st Division, in the match deciding the final league positions, AEK Larnaca will face Paphos on May 16, 2026 (Saturday) at 5:00 p.m. at the AEK Arena in Larnaca. Based on the odds, the hosts are the favorites for the match; We encourage you to read the analysis and betting tips below before making your decision.
Aek Larnaca – Paphos: betting tips
Both teams are in stable form in the championship phase: AEK Larnaca bases their game on ball control and solid defense, while Paphos has a stronger offense and is able to set the pace. Below are three betting suggestions taking into account available markets and current statistics of both teams.
1. Bet on the result (1X2 / Support)
AEK Larnaca is in 2nd place in the table and is able to control the course of the game at home, which, combined with its defensive effectiveness (28 goals conceded), gives arguments for the hosts’ victory. Paphos has a strong attack but concedes goals more often than AEK.
🎯 Our prediction: AEK Larnaca to win
Course: 2.25
2. Goal Predictions (Under/Over/BTTS)
Both teams have relatively solid offensive lines (56 goals for AEK and 62 goals for Paphos in total), but head-to-head meetings were often decided by one or two goals. The shots on target statistics suggest a moderate number of goal situations, which leads us to predict at least one goal already in the first half.
🎯 Our pick: 1st half – Over 0.5
Course: 1.39
3. Special type (Corner kicks / Cards / Shooter)
You can increase the safety of your bet by choosing a risk-limiting option – double home odds are a popular option for balanced odds. AEK has the advantage in possession and controls the tempo, which reduces the chances of surprise from the visitors.
🎯 Our pick: Double Chance – 1X
Course: 1.33
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Betting odds for the Aek Larnaca – Paphos match
Analysts point to AEK Larnaca as a slight favorite for the match due to their position in the table and better defensive record; however, the odds reflect the even nature of the competition.
- 1X2:
- AEK Larnaca: 2.25
- Discounted: 3.15
- Pathos: 2.90
- Double Chance:
- 1X: 1.33
- 12: 1.29
- X2: 1.50
- Draw = Refund:
- AEK Larnaca: 1.64
- Pathos: 2.09
Aek Larnaca vs Paphos – analysis and form of the teams
AEK Larnaca is a team that maintains a high position this season (2nd place) and usually controls the pace of the game through greater possession of the ball (average 56.0%). A solid defense (28 goals conceded) and the ability to limit opponents’ shots on target make AEK a difficult opponent at home. The team’s most effective scorer is Hrvoje Milicevic (11 goals in 33 matches), and Djorde Ivanovic, who has a significant number of assists, plays an important creative role.
Paphos is in 4th place and has a higher number of goals scored (62), but also a weaker defense (35 goals conceded). The attack is driven by João Correia (10 goals in 21 appearances), and the offensive creativity is supported by Jay Gorter in terms of assists. Paphos can use more aggressive pressing and creates many opportunities, which may complicate AEK’s plans, especially if individual opponents make mistakes.
Aek Larnaca – Paphos: statistics and head-to-head (H2H)
The history of head-to-head matches favors AEK Larnaca, which has achieved more victories against Paphos in recent years.
- 📅 2026-04-18: Pafos 1 – 1 AEK Larnaca
- 📅 2026-01-25: Pafos 1 – 2 AEK Larnaca
- 📅 2025-10-30: Pafos 1 – 1 AEK Larnaca
Match card: Aek Larnaca – Paphos
- 🏆 Competition: Cyprus 1st Division – Championship Group (Championship Round)
- 📅 Data: 16.05.2026
- ⏰ Time: 17:00
- 📍 Stadion: AEK Arena, Larnaka
- 🎯 Our main prediction: AEK Larnaca to win (Odds: 2.25)
Frequently asked questions (FAQ) about the Aek Larnaca – Paphos match:
Who is the favorite in the Aek Larnaca – Paphos match?
The favorites of the match are the hosts, AEK Larnaca – the odds for their victory in ETOTO are 2.25. The hosts have a better defensive average and possession control, which translates into an advantage in odds.
What should you bet on in the Aek Larnaca – Paphos match?
According to ETOTO’s analysis, interesting bets are AEK Larnaca to win (2.25) and 1st half – Over 0.5 (1.39). For players who prefer more security, Double Chance 1X (1.33) may be a good choice.
📋 Looking for more picks? See: football types
Which players can decide the outcome of the match?
In the AEK team, the key figures are Hrvoje Milicevic as the most effective striker and Djorde Ivanovic as a pass creator. In Paphos, the biggest threat comes from João Correia, supported by Jay Gorter, who provides assists.
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